• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) continues its downward trend, consistent with today’s 2Q21 GDP release which reported a -26% decline in disposable personal income (after increasing +58% during 1Q21), primarily reflecting a decrease in government stimulus.
• It seems that material food-away-from-home inflation can only be absorbed by government stimulus. Without this, traffic suffers.
• Notably, supplemental unemployment benefits are set to end in at least 25 states beginning in mid-June.
• Fortunately, child tax credit payments are forthcoming shortly.
• Weakness is most notable among the working age demos (25-64).
• While the previous eye-popping growth of RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) maybe slowing, it looks like sales for June will still be strong on a y/y basis.
• So it appears that even as stimulus tapers, consumer demand remains robust as consumer confidence continues to rebound and jobless claims drop to a post-lockdown low.
RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +28.5%, representing an easy y/y compare but also the strongest absolute results ever.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +17.4% y/y, representing the largest monthly increase & 2nd highest absolute score since survey inception.
• Strong results from women & the 25+ age demo for both sexes helped offset weakness in the QSR oriented 18-24 demo.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +7.4% y/y, representing both the second largest monthly increase and absolute score since survey inception.
• We credit this with improving price value (see chart below) combined with government stimulus.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +3.9% y/y (from pre-lockdown level).
• This represents an inflection point after the Index declined sharply over the last 2 months, hopefully suggesting a bottom in consumer sentiment.
Time for Price Value?
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) decreased -4.7% y/y.
• This represents the second largest y/y decline since the onset of the March 2020 lockdowns.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) decreased -3.4% y/y.
• With an estimated ~90% share of $1B+ chain system sales currently driven by off-premise, this decrease in sentiment is mostly concerning as it relates to economic stress & consumer spending.
SLOWING INTENT = LESS INCOME & DISCOUNTS
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +4.5% y/y.
• However, on a sequential month/month basis, the Index declined -1.5% and represented the lowest level since April’s rebound.
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