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NoBull Public Posts
Student-Loan Stress Pressuring Restaurant Spending
While federal student-loan payments resumed in October 2023, the expiration of the September 2024 on-ramp marked a more important inflection point for consumer credit as it delayed the reporting of missed payments. Since early 2025, student-loan delinquencies and defaults have surged as those missed payments became reportable, with the New York Fed estimating millions of borrowers entered default in late 2025 & early 2026. This suggests the consumer impact of the repayment restart is still working through household balance sheets, potentially creating an ongoing headwind to discretionary spending, including restaurant consumption.
U.S. Alcohol Consumption Remains at Record Low According to Gallup
U.S. alcohol consumption remains at a record-low as growing health concerns drive consumers to drink less. Overdrinking also reached a historic low, nonalcoholic alternatives are gaining adoption & long-term beverage preferences continue to shift from beer toward liquor.
BJ’s Wholesale 2Q26: Strong 2Q Growth as Value & Fuel Drive Momentum
BJ’s delivered +15.9% sales growth in 2Q as merchandise comps increased +3.1% on higher traffic & ticket while fuel volumes surged. Digital growth, membership expansion & continued value investments support market-share gains. FY26 merchandise comp guidance was maintained at +2% to +3%.
Report Announcements
Popeyes 2026
Popeyes leads the $1B+ bone-in QSR chicken segment with a Louisiana-inspired menu spanning chicken, fried shrimp, and regional sides. After sales softened in 2024 and worsened in 2025 amid ineffective promotions, management is pursuing its “Easy to Love” recovery plan by slowing unit growth, improving store execution, and refocusing marketing on the core menu.
1H26 Franchise Lending & Valuation Report
RR’s 1H26 Restaurant & Fitness Lending Update analyzes how the lending environment has changed since January 2026 with respect to: (1) projected FY26 loan originations; (2) underwriting standards; (3) current lending rates; and (4) borrower financial condition. The report also includes an update to 1H26 franchisee EBITDA valuation multiples and cap rates.
Buffalo Wild Wings 2026
Buffalo Wild Wings remains an iconic sports bar, but the market has changed since 1982. With more fans watching at home and competitors offering near fast-food prices, BWW has broadened its menu and shifted toward a more traditional casual dining model. However, we believe BWW could do more to appeal to sports fans by improving its in-restaurant experience.
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Restaurant Research’s Capital Markets Dashboard
Equities Pause During July While Energy Surges Amid Shifting Monetary Policy Expectations
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