NoBull Posts
Darden 1Q24: Sales +11.6% Y/Y, Comps +5.5% Y/Y
Darden reported that industry same-restaurant sales increased +0.9% and industry same-restaurant guest counts decreased -4.2% during its fiscal 1Q24. The chain’s comps outperformed the industry by +4.1% and its traffic outperformed by +4.3% (= flattish traffic for Darden during the quarter).
Job Market Looks Solid
In this chart, we subtract total quits from total hires. The excess of hires over quits looks very good relative to the historical level even though the positive gap recently dipped slightly. Workers are staying at their jobs longer even as they continue to have new employment opportunities.
The Economics of Politics
As the U.S. gears up for the 2024 elections, it is important to consider changes to our elections and governance that can unite the citizens of this great country.
2Q23 Retail Same Store Sales
NoBull’s Retail Same Store Sales Report benchmarks 80+ large consumer retail companies by domestic same store sales including annual (2019 – 2022) and quarterly results (2Q22 to 2Q23).
Walmart Investor Presentation: Inflation Here to Stay
While general merchandise prices are lower y/y, they remain elevated compared to 2 years ago. As Walmart does not believe general merchandise and food (dry grocery) & consumable prices are ever going to completely disinflate, management suggests the need for a country-wide wage increase rebalancing.
Interesting Conversation with Fed Chair Powell
Okay, Powell didn’t actually take our call, but we offer a transcript of a potential discussion between the Fed Chair and John Q. Public. It’s very insightful, so please read on.
The Problem with Investment Diversification
Every investment advisor and business student knows that portfolio diversification is key to wealth building. Show me an investor who can beat the S&P 500 Index by buying a few handpicked stocks and I will show you a hedge fund manager in the making. However, there is a huge problem with this strategy that no one is talking about.
Part 3: Analyzing Performance of Low-Income Oriented Retail Companies
We created an index for the financial performance of 5 low-income oriented retail companies to assess the health of this demo. While we recognize that these companies have benefited from the trade-down of higher-income consumers, things look reasonable at least through calendar 2Q23.
Part 2: Incremental Interest Payments Squeeze Disposable Income
In this post, we quantify the pressure on disposable income driven by credit card & auto loan payment increases since the onset of the Fed rate hikes in early 2022 in addition to the impact of the coming resumption of student loan payments in October 2023.
Part 1: Keeping an Eye on the Consumer’s Top-Line
The consumer’s top-line benefits from a high employment rate, generous raises, and a healthy savings rate which indicates an income surplus.
RR Posts
Buffalo Wild Wings 2023
Buffalo Wild Wings enjoys a unique positioning as the largest sports bar brand (4th largest casual chain) which is famous for its wings flavored with 26 B-Dub sauces & seasonings in ascending order of heat. While BWW enjoys considerable brand equity as the largest and perhaps most iconic sports bar chain, there remains more work to convince young sports fans that the chain’s dining experience is worth the price premium over Wingstop delivery.
Arby’s 2023
Arby’s strong and unique positioning among $1B+ QSR chains is based upon a credible, affordable NY deli format (with a drive-thru) that bakes beef roasts and freshly slices all other roasts in-house to create fast crafted, made-to-order hot deli sandwiches. While Arby’s has a great business model, it must find ways to reach a higher income demo while it waits for an economic rebound to help its struggling lower-income core customers who love their Arby’s.
Wingstop 2023
Wingstop is the only $1B+ national chain with an exclusive specialization in the chicken wing category and while the chain’s top-line performance has been remarkable so far, work remains to convince customers to extend their usage of the chain beyond a special bone-in treat to more frequent purchases of high margin boneless products sufficient to drive AUVs and store-level margins to levels appropriate for a world class wings player.
Dashboard Capital Markets September 2023
The Philadelphia Fed is forecasting +1.9% real GDP growth for 3Q23 which is significantly lower than the Atlanta Fed’s +5.9% GDPNow forecast.
2Q23 Investor Calls & Same Store Sales
FSR and QSR investor calls and same-store-sales report.
1H23 Restaurant Lending & Valuation Update
Full-year 2023 restaurant originations (excluding sale leaseback financing) are now projected to be $8.3B, -35% lower than initial expectations at the beginning of the year.
Taco Bell 2023
Taco Bell remains one of the best positioned QSR chains, supported by a craveable menu filled with a wide array of abundant value options, compelling brand positioning & marketing, and a material COGs outperformance which provides an important clue about TB’s secret sauce.
Burger King 2023
While Burger King is progressing in finding ways to expand its market reach towards new, more affluent consumers who are willing to pay for the brand’s strong core equities and quality upgrades, the chain’s ongoing turnaround requires more than 2 quarters of strong sales to show that it has progressed beyond its historical struggles.
IDR Unit Economics 2023
2022 EBITDAR Margin was a Record Low, But EBITDAR $ Amount was 3rd Best Due to Record AUV
Dashboard Unit Level August 2023
2Q23 Unit Level Margins Improving.
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