Macro Insights

Job Market Looks Solid

Job Market Looks Solid

In this chart, we subtract total quits from total hires. The excess of hires over quits looks very good relative to the historical level even though the positive gap recently dipped slightly. Workers are staying at their jobs longer even as they continue to have new employment opportunities.

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Teenage Wasteland No More

Teenage Wasteland No More

The American youth (15 – 24-year-old) unemployment rate makes our country look downright productive compared to the rest of the world!

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The Fight for Global Manufacturing Gets Personal

The Fight for Global Manufacturing Gets Personal

Post-covid U.S. exports of goods & services have skyrocketed as American companies have worked hard to onshore their supply chains, providing them with products to sell overseas. Correspondingly, U.S. imports from China have fallen considerably since late 2022 after China’s extended covid lockdowns left their American customers without product to sell.  

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July’s Retail Sales Reveal Changing Consumer Spending Trends

July’s Retail Sales Reveal Changing Consumer Spending Trends

Estimated monthly sales for retail & food services increased +8.4% on an annualized, sequential m/m basis during July 2023. While this looks great & helps explain the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for +5.9% 3Q23 real GDP growth, a closer look at the details reveals ongoing consumer struggles.

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Part 1: What Recession?

Part 1: What Recession?

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is estimating a shocking +5.9% y/y real GPD increase for 3Q23 (official reporting date 10/26) which is notably adjusted for inflation. While this forecast is substantially higher than the Blue-Chip consensus estimates (the high-end of the range is still under 3%), it points to considerable retail strength…

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