Macro Insights

Why is it so Dangerous to Forecast a Crisis?

Why is it so Dangerous to Forecast a Crisis?

Everyone agrees that scientific advancements are most welcome and vital to the progress of a healthy society. However, we must distinguish between fact-based scientific discovery and the unreliable ART of forecasting.

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The Cost of an Extra 10 Years

The Cost of an Extra 10 Years

Would life expectancy descend to 70 if healthcare spending was reduced to 1959 levels? Is it possible there has been significant healthcare cost inflation which has not contributed to an increased life expectancy?

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