No Bull Economics

Part 1: Long Covid Diet – Analyzing 2019 to 2023 Food & Alcohol Spend Trends

Part 1: Long Covid Diet – Analyzing 2019 to 2023 Food & Alcohol Spend Trends

Recent data provided by the USDA provides valuable insight into consumer food spending patterns by channel through 2023. Interestingly, the -6.3% y/y decline in total food spend during 2020 was double the -3% decline during the 2009 Great Recession. In any case, 2023 total food spend adjusted for inflation is up +43% since 2009 & up +16% since 2020. Maybe all this stress eating explains the huge demand for the GLP-1 weight loss meds?

read more
The TJX Companies, Inc. 1QFY25: Solid Quarter Reflects Business Model Strength

The TJX Companies, Inc. 1QFY25: Solid Quarter Reflects Business Model Strength

The TJX Companies reported that its 2Q is off to a good start, inventory levels are in good shape & the company is in a great position to capitalize on outstanding buying opportunities in the marketplace. Management plans to flow fresh assortments to its stores & online this summer and throughout the year. While positive sales were reported for income cohorts both above & below $100k, sales growth during the quarter skewed more toward the lower-income customer.

read more
Target Corporation 1Q24: Could Be Better…

Target Corporation 1Q24: Could Be Better…

Target reported that its view of the highly resilient U.S. consumer remains the same as 3 months ago. While consumers begin to moderate their post-covid spending emphasis on services, entertainment & travel, continued discretionary category softness (most notably in Home & Hardlines) reflects the cumulative impact of higher retail prices on consumer budgets.

read more
J&J Snack Foods Corp. 2QFY24: Record Quarterly Revenue!

J&J Snack Foods Corp. 2QFY24: Record Quarterly Revenue!

J&J Snack Foods characterized the consumer environment as “toppy waters” or “ticklish customers”. The company attributes its strong results to offering affordable, experiential products (icees, churros, or pretzels) that may be cut back during a trip to the grocery store but purchased as an affordable treat/reward on the way home from work. Notably, the company expects a -15% decline in its movie industry channel sales because of the 2023 actor strike which weakened the production pipeline (with a rebound expected in ~2 quarters).

read more
The Kraft Heinz Company 1Q24: Consumers Are Looking Up

The Kraft Heinz Company 1Q24: Consumers Are Looking Up

While Kraft Heinz reported a notable uptick in consumer sentiment during the quarter, there remains a wide gap between high & low earners. Lower-income consumers are challenged with high interest rates & gas prices as their savings dwindle. There is a clear pullback of spending by these lower-earning households in restaurants & convenience stores as they seek more affordable food at home options. In any case, management feels very good about Away from Home as it believes trends there will eventually improve.

read more
Faster Processing Speeds for Human Reasoning

Faster Processing Speeds for Human Reasoning

They say AI will run the world and solve (control) all our problems. Nvidia’s market cap is $2.6 trillion (even though it’s located in Taiwan which is on the verge of being invaded) and Sam Altman’s Open AI is trying to raise $7 trillion in new funding. All the while some managers in the real-world economy can barely leverage 40-year-old technology like Microsoft Excel (Lotus 1-2-3 before that) in their operations to implement obvious efficiencies…

read more
WK Kellogg Co. 1Q24: Strong Margin Growth Despite Slight Sales Decline

WK Kellogg Co. 1Q24: Strong Margin Growth Despite Slight Sales Decline

Kellogg reported that while the U.S. cereal category improved sequentially during 1Q, sales were flat with volume declining low single digits. While other food companies are reporting that stressed consumers are shifting their spending towards at-home meals, Kellogg has not observed this trend although management noted that it could represent a potential tailwind for its sales in the future.

read more
Become a Member
NoBull Posts Thumbnail
Restaurant Research

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Research Services Banner

A Restaurant Research LLC Company