No Bull Economics

A Primer on Banking, Past to Present

A Primer on Banking, Past to Present

From its start with the European financial families, banking has been around for a long time. Sometimes it’s good to review the origin of a thing to better understand where we are today…

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Amazon 4Q23 Sales +14%, Operating Income +482% Y/Y

Amazon 4Q23 Sales +14%, Operating Income +482% Y/Y

As if Amazon’s quarter wasn’t sufficiently outstanding, the company is planning on expanding into medical services where it believes it can easily outperform an outdated healthcare system which requires consumers to schedule appointments far out in advance, drive 20 minutes to an appointment before waiting 15 minutes in an exam room to receive a prescription, & then driving even further to a pharmacy to pick up their prescription.

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2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters

2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters

The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did 3 months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1% this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.8% percent in the last survey.

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Insights from U.S. Treasury’s General Account

Insights from U.S. Treasury’s General Account

In our previous post, we highlighted one of Key Square’s investment premises that Yellen’s Treasury Department may have an incentive to increase government spending to help propel the economy & markets during an election year. To this end, Key Square advised checking on the Fed’s spending levels by monitoring the U.S. Treasury’s General Account which doubles as its checking account. In this post, we look at the relationship between stocks & this account.

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Suprising Insights from Key Square Investment Team

Suprising Insights from Key Square Investment Team

Let’s start with the fact that Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Investment Group, had previously worked as the Chief Investment Officer for Soros Fund Management before receiving $2B in seed money from George Soros in 2015 to start his new firm. This is why it is so shocking that he recently wrote that equity markets are in the middle of a “Trump Rally” that will last if he remains ahead of Biden in the polls. This contrarian view is worth a look.

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Why so Much NoBull Focus on Politics?

Why so Much NoBull Focus on Politics?

We were recently speaking to a top Wall Street analyst who covers the restaurant industry & he wanted our opinion about why there seems to be such a disconnect between stock performance and financial fundamentals. He thought many stocks under his coverage should be down big time, but instead, they are up significantly. Maybe a clue is provided by a top hedge fund manager who recently wrote a letter to his investors about a Trump rally that went viral…

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Time for a Convention of States?

Time for a Convention of States?

Article V of the U.S. Constitution gives states the power to call a convention to propose amendments. It takes 34 states to call the convention & 38 to ratify any amendments that are proposed. How about a convention to discuss an amendment to limit the power & jurisdiction of the federal government, impose fiscal restraints, and place term limits on federal officials? Since the 2013 launch of this Convention of States (COS) initiative, 19.5 states have passed the COS resolution with another 14 states considering active legislation. We’re getting close…

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Charity Begins At Home

Charity Begins At Home

If you knew that American families were $20B in arrears with their utility bills at the end of 2023, would you consider urging the government to help your neighbors keep warm & the lights on or would you prefer Uncle Sam to fork over $625MM+ during 2023 to help “new entrants” settle-in to the U.S.?    

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