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Best Buy 3QFY24 U.S. Comps -7.3% Y/Y

Best Buy 3QFY24 U.S. Comps -7.3% Y/Y

While consumers are still spending, they are making careful choices & trade-offs appropriate for their households (reflecting increased debt levels & waning savings). 4QFY24 comp guidance call for a -3% to -7% y/y decline.

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Lowe’s 3Q23 Comps Declined -7.4% Y/Y

Lowe’s 3Q23 Comps Declined -7.4% Y/Y

Lowe’s reported that the DIY customer became cautious during 3Q with particular weakness in appliances, décor, flooring, kitchen, and bath DIY categories as consumers pushed off bigger ticket purchases. For example, a customer who would have ordinarily purchased an entire kitchen suite may have purchased just a refrigerator.

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New Fourth Branch for the Federal Government?

New Fourth Branch for the Federal Government?

It is time for Americans to realize that the government needs some adult supervision over its budgeting process – before it is too late. We have a really good model in the corporate world that should be applied to the largest corporation in the world, the United States of America.

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Marriott International 3Q23: Global RevPAR +9% Y/Y

Marriott International 3Q23: Global RevPAR +9% Y/Y

Marriott reported that consumers are seeking experiences more so than goods, whether that be music concerts, professional sports games, or youth athletics. While the desire for experiences was more prevalent among younger demos pre-covid, this trend now spans all generations according to data from its credit-card partners.

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What is a Dollar Worth?

What is a Dollar Worth?

The Federal Government’s financial condition could be better! We are running annual spending deficits that are approaching $2 trillion (up from the CBO’s May 2023 estimates) which will add to outstanding debt which exceeded $32 trillion at the end of 2Q23. Our annual tax revenue is under $5 trillion, and it is estimated that higher rates mean that the government will incur $1 trillion in annual interest expense (representing 20% of the government’s revenue) also up from the CBO’s estimates. Hard asset investments like gold are looking good right about now…

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The TJX Companies 3QFY24: Consolidated Comps +6% Driven Entirely by Traffic

The TJX Companies 3QFY24: Consolidated Comps +6% Driven Entirely by Traffic

The TJX Companies is the largest brick-and-mortar off-price retailer in the world which benefits from one of the most flexible business models in retail, allowing the company to buy close to need by quickly adjusting its store assortment to meet changing consumer preferences. A curated store mix appeals to shoppers across all income demographics & the company continues to attract an outsized number of Gen Z & millennial shoppers to its stores. Finally, TJX’s sales strength reflects a 20% to 60% price advantage compared to other retailers who have been increasing their prices.

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Premium RR Posts

Cracker Barrel 1QFY24 Sales Declined -1.9% Y/Y In-Line with Expectations

Cracker Barrel 1QFY24 Sales Declined -1.9% Y/Y In-Line with Expectations

Consumers have been resilient, but sentiment remains weak by historic standards, with many consumers feeling economically distressed & pessimistic, pressuring discretionary spending. However, sequential monthly traffic improvements during the quarter reflected investments to improve its guest experience & marketing investment to emphasize the chain’s strong value proposition across its dayparts.

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The Value of an Entry-Level Fast-Food Job

The Value of an Entry-Level Fast-Food Job

Damien Sanders recently graduated college with an economics degree, and now he works at Restaurant Research LLC. However, he didn’t start out as a hot shot Analyst – rather, he cut his teeth working at Zaxby’s & Bojangles during college, learning many life lessons along the way. In this Q&A, Damien explains why the fast-food industry provides such a good launching pad for young people prepping for a career…

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Time for Lenders to Reboot Their Franchise Finance Operations

Time for Lenders to Reboot Their Franchise Finance Operations

The restaurant franchise finance asset class currently benefits from strong unit-level sales and food cost deflation. Loan collateral has held up well generally speaking and the economy & capital markets are certainly stronger than the Great Recession that started around 2008. In this post, we conduct a Q&A with the head of a prominent franchise finance group & present some supporting data about why it may be time for lenders to jump back into the pool.  

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Jack in the Box Inc. Fiscal 4Q23: Jack’s Comps Up +3.9% Y/Y

Jack in the Box Inc. Fiscal 4Q23: Jack’s Comps Up +3.9% Y/Y

Jack reported strong results, indicating that it is still performing well with higher-income consumers & evenly across all other deciles of income. However, uncertainty remains as it relates to price elasticity in California given the need to hike menu prices in that market next year to address the AB1228 minimum wage hike to $20/hr.

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Emerging Chain Highlights: BIGGBY® COFFEE

Emerging Chain Highlights: BIGGBY® COFFEE

We had never heard of BIGGBY® COFFEE until a team member’s spouse declared: “BIGGBY® COFFEE is going to be the next Starbucks!” Naturally, that got our attention as this is not something you hear every day. We pressed Julie our “source” – why would she say this about Biggby’s?  

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State of Restaurant Franchise Finance

State of Restaurant Franchise Finance

Wally just got back from Vegas where he attended the Restaurant Finance Monitor conference to escape the tyranny of raising his young children, get to a warm climate, shmooze, lose some money at the Casinos, and also take the pulse of the state of restaurant finance which he outlines in this post.

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CAVA Group, Inc. 3Q23: Consolidated Rev +26% Y/Y, CAVA Rev +50% Y/Y, Comps +14%

CAVA Group, Inc. 3Q23: Consolidated Rev +26% Y/Y, CAVA Rev +50% Y/Y, Comps +14%

CAVA’s management attributed its astounding growth to the broad appeal & proven portability of its innovative Mediterranean concept which more than offset ongoing consumer headwinds. CAVA is creating & defining the next major cultural cuisine category with a substantial white space opportunity. Further, management suggested that online life has failed to replace the real-life emotional connections that humans crave as consumers seek restaurants that make them feel welcomed, warm & cared for.

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