We had never heard of BIGGBY® COFFEE until a team member’s spouse declared: “BIGGBY® COFFEE is going to be the next Starbucks!” Naturally, that got our attention as this is not something you hear every day. We pressed Julie our “source” – why would she say this about Biggby’s?
Wally just got back from Vegas where he attended the Restaurant Finance Monitor conference to escape the tyranny of raising his young children, get to a warm climate, shmooze, lose some money at the Casinos, and also take the pulse of the state of restaurant finance which he outlines in this post.
Hardee’s, a regional chain which is generally oriented towards rural, lower-income markets in the Southeast & Midwest, is well known for its made from scratch biscuits (breakfast drives almost half of sales); 100% Angus charbroiled burgers; and hand-breaded chicken sandwich & tender options. While Hardee’s strategy is well conceived to leverage its core competencies, the chain remains challenged by its value equation and geographic market/demo positioning during a period of significant stress on lower-income consumers.
Del Taco is the 2nd largest Mexican QSR, positioned around a wide variety of better-quality food (use of fresh ingredients represents a competitive distinction) offered for reasonable prices with convenient drive-thru access. While Del Taco enjoys strong concept fundamentals, the chain remains challenged to drive needed AUV growth especially at a time when its core low-income customers remain stressed by unfavorable economic conditions.
The average number of units operated by franchisees of the $1B+ Chains has increased from 5.4 in 2018 to 6.1 in 2022 which reflects the need for scale in the current high-cost operating environment.
During October, the S&P 500 declined -2.2% & the Russell 2000 (small caps) was down nearly -7%. The good news is that Bitcoin was up almost +30%! There is a lot to worry about given all the war mongering around the world, with a growing number of hotspots that adds the Middle East to the Ukraine & Taiwan. There is also growing consternation about the porous U.S. southern border and we got a new Speaker of the House who has got right to work on lining-up billions to ship overseas. Did we forget to mention that the 10-year yield made a big move higher during October & actually had the temerity to test the forbidden 5% red line.
Subway is the largest sub sandwich chain by far with an ad budget larger by multiples than the other sub chains and continues to make progress with its current brand repositioning. However, while Subway is working hard to improve its relevancy in a crowded field, the chain has a lot of work to recover 20%+ of domestic sales market share lost over the last 10 years to the $1B+ chains.
Recent restaurant stock weakness reflects investor concern about slowing industry traffic & increasing consumer weakness, points recently addressed by General Mills.
Denny’s unique “America’s Diner” brand positioning provides the promise of everyday value with craveable, comfort food served around the clock in a friendly and welcoming atmosphere. While Denny’s management team is executing well around a very solid strategy, the chain remains challenged to drive needed AUV growth especially at a time when its core low-income customers remain stressed by unfavorable economic conditions.
Buffalo Wild Wings enjoys a unique positioning as the largest sports bar brand (4th largest casual chain) which is famous for its wings flavored with 26 B-Dub sauces & seasonings in ascending order of heat. While BWW enjoys considerable brand equity as the largest and perhaps most iconic sports bar chain, there remains more work to convince young sports fans that the chain’s dining experience is worth the price premium over Wingstop delivery.
Email Sign-up
A Restaurant Research LLC Company
