The Government Employee Count Leading Indicator

Jan 29, 2024 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

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When the economy is expected to turn down, corporate America quickly engage consultants to “right-size” their workforces. Layoffs come quickly, sometimes hacking away a sizeable portion of existing staff. Uncle Sam does just the opposite, with amazing precision.


  • Why would the Federal government ramp up its headcount before almost all the recessions since 1974?
  • We’re not sure, but, notably, the Federal payrolls are currently spiking higher…

  • In any case, are we the only ones to believe that the Federal government probably would be far more efficient & less intrusive with a fraction of its nearly 3MM strong workforce?
  • Government spending soon will have to be curtailed as a matter of financial necessity & rather than cutting SNAP, SS or Medicare payments, how about we add some slack to the labor market for Powell by rightsizing the Federal government?? 

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