Restaurant Research’s Capital Markets Dashboard for June 2024

Jun 3, 2024 | Dashboard, Restaurant Research

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On the one hand, investors are flocking to hard assets which makes sense in a topsy-turvy world. On the other hand, investors are also piling into the stock indexes even though restaurant stock performance would suggest that a full-blown recession is upon us. Fortunately, 1Q restaurant financial performance & comments by some leading retail companies suggest that it may be time for restaurant stocks to come out of the doghouse

Overall Market Performance

  • It’s a weird market. YTD performance through the end of May was strongest for crypto & hard assets (Coinbase +55%, Silver +28%, oil +15%, & gold +13%) which nudged out the tech heavy NASDAQ +11.5% and the S&P 500 +10.6%. Surprisingly, stock indexes have been doing well despite: a growing acceptance that we are not getting interest rate cuts any time soon; material & intensifying geopolitical tensions; and let’s not forget the small brouhaha surrounding Trump’s NYC felony indictment… 

Asset Class Price Performance

QSR Stock Performance

QSR Stocks Performance

FSR Stock Performance

  • Notably, FSR (sit-down) stocks outperformed QSR during May which also doesn’t make sense if investors are concerned about a weakening consumer environment. Look at May’s stock performance for Brinker & Cheesecake in the table below, and then read our 1Q analyses for these chains (Brinker here & Cheesecake here) and decide for yourself if this is warranted. With all that is going on in the world, perhaps investors are positioning around the idea that consumers will flock to Chili’s as they embrace the axiom “eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die”…

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