Record Inflation Plunges Consumer Confidence

Jan 10, 2023 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

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The consumer confidence level has fallen to levels below the 2009 Great Recession, and shockingly, far below the 2020 covid lockdown levels. This certainly has implications for future GDP performance.

Key Points

The chart below points to slower GDP growth/recession, consistent with the Fed’s predictive GDP forecast index which we posted about last week.

Consumer Opinion Surveys Graph
Consumer Opinion Surveys Graph

Notably, a bounce-back in consumer confidence halfway through 2022 mirrors the drop in gasoline prices (see chart below). All the same, we are beginning to see gas prices start to creep back up most recently.

Gas Prices Graph
Gas Prices Graph
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