Popping the Balloon of January’s Job Report

Feb 6, 2023 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

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The government reported that 517,000 jobs were added in January, but these were adjusted numbers that provided bragging rights before the State of the Union address and further justification for the Fed’s +25 bps rate hike last week. We present the unadjusted numbers which came in as a -2.5MM loss & present a completely different take on the economy. Notably, the bullish take comes during a period when we would ordinarily expect many temporary retail employees & gift delivery/warehouse employees to be let go after the holidays.

Key Job Highlights

The following table highlights key components of January’s -2.5MM month/month unadjusted job loss, with a hit too: restaurants; admin & support jobs (overhead); general retail merchandisers; couriers & messengers (delivery drivers); educators public & private; temp help agencies; and employment agencies. Clearly, the last 2 categories mentioned above reinforce the idea of a weakening employment situation.

Adjusted January Job Data
Adjusted January Job Data
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