Popping the Balloon of January’s Job Report

Feb 6, 2023 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

Job Report Post Banner
Banner

The government reported that 517,000 jobs were added in January, but these were adjusted numbers that provided bragging rights before the State of the Union address and further justification for the Fed’s +25 bps rate hike last week. We present the unadjusted numbers which came in as a -2.5MM loss & present a completely different take on the economy. Notably, the bullish take comes during a period when we would ordinarily expect many temporary retail employees & gift delivery/warehouse employees to be let go after the holidays.

Key Job Highlights

The following table highlights key components of January’s -2.5MM month/month unadjusted job loss, with a hit too: restaurants; admin & support jobs (overhead); general retail merchandisers; couriers & messengers (delivery drivers); educators public & private; temp help agencies; and employment agencies. Clearly, the last 2 categories mentioned above reinforce the idea of a weakening employment situation.

Adjusted January Job Data
Adjusted January Job Data
Signup
NoBullEconomics
Restaurant Research

Email Sign-up

15 Second Posts

The Importance of the Balance Sheet in Financial Analysis

While most investors are focused on sales growth & margins, they would be well served to further consider the strength of a company’s balance sheet. We look at BlackRock’s financial condition as an illustrative point.

The Importance of Free Cash Flow in Financial Analysis

Cash represents the lifeblood of all business enterprises which is why it is important to analyze free cash flow which we define as operating cash flow minus capex, dividends, and stock buybacks. We illustrate DoorDash as an example of why cash flow analysis is so important. 

Lessons From Tucker Carlson

There are many theories about why Fox booted Tucker Carlson, but it may be a very simple reason which can instruct everyone involved in the consumer retail segment.

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

This week we spotlight efforts by international agencies to lower the earth’s temperature by imposing onerous regulations on energy producers. We suggest it will be better to: begin a process of implementing continuous improvements designed to support both economic & climate progress; and use international organizations to share tech & best practices as opposed to providing them with regulatory powers best left to individual nation-states.   

Part 3 – It’s Nice for the US to Save the Climate, But What About the Rest of the World?

In our last 2 posts, we outlined the probability that the UN’s push to lower the world’s temperature by -2 degrees Celsius could drive significant U.S. energy price hikes & shortages. How is this going to help as Asia ramps up the use of coal? Can humans lower the earth’s temperature anyhow?

Part 2: Who is Left to Make Investments in Fossil Fuels & Clean Energy?

There is not a lot of incentive for profit-seeking companies to invest in demonized fossil fuels or in clean energy projects lacking ROI. This points to substantially higher energy prices and supply shortages that will have a profound economic impact.

Part 1: Ramping Energy Demand Clashes with UN’s Environmental Goals

From 2021 to 2050, ExxonMobil forecasts that 85% of the population growth will be driven by developing countries, which in turn, will drive a +15% increase in energy demand.

What if the Federal Government Was Turned into a 501c3 Non-Profit?

Given all the focus on the debt ceiling, we propose a thought experiment in which all 100 federal agencies must compete for charitable donations. If taxpayers get to choose for themselves what to fund, what might we learn? 

Like Sinatra Croons: “So you see it’s all up to you, you can be better than you are.”

The top-paid hourly workers are currently enjoying the fastest wage growth, indicative of the current challenge to recruit & retain a skilled labor force.

Switching Jobs Paid Big Time in April

While declining labor turnover was a common theme during the 1Q23 investor calls, wage data shows that there is still good reason for employees to job-hop.

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Restaurant Research

A Restaurant Research LLC Company