Executive Summary: The recent payroll report gave the market great faith that there is no recession with the establishment survey (a poll of companies) showing that 528,000 jobs were added in July (a healthy amount). However, the household survey showed only 179,000 new jobs in July with the total number of employed -136,000 less than in May. Further, the labor participation rate from the household survey continues to decline which indicates that fewer people are working. So, what gives? One interpretation is that more people are taking extra jobs to help pay for their higher cost of living. In this scenario, companies are filling more positions, but with employees that already have other jobs. In conclusion, an analysis of the entire data set gives less of a reason to call an end to the recession than the knee-jerk reaction to the headline payroll number.
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