Part 3 – It’s Nice for the US to Save the Climate, But What About the Rest of the World?

May 22, 2023 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

In our last 2 posts (part 1, part 2), we outlined the probability that the UN’s push to lower the world’s temperature by -2 degrees Celsius could drive significant U.S. energy price hikes & shortages. How is this going to help as Asia ramps up the use of coal? Can humans lower the earth’s temperature anyhow?  

Commentary

  • Even though the cost of mining coal will face some upward pressure after 2030, the EIA projects that coal prices will remain lower relative to natural gas, providing a cost-competitive generation option to natural gas-fired power generation.
  • Resultantly, another non-OECD Asia is expected to drive 75%+ of the world’s coal-fired generation increase from 2030 through 2050 as these developing countries seek cost-effective energy solutions to facilitate their modernization efforts.
Coal eia Graphs

Source: International Energy Outlook Electricity – World coal-fired generation declines through 2030 in the Reference case, but it remains a significant part of the worldwide generation mix – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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