Part 2: Analyzing Food Spend Channel Share Changes From 2018 to 2023

Jun 12, 2024 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

Grocery Stores Ceding Food Sales to Hotels & Schools? Post Banner

Grocery & convenience stores and warehouse clubs have been ceding food sales share to hotels & schools?

Food at Home Channel Trends

  • After the 2020 spike in grocery store sales, consumer spending at grocery stores & warehouse clubs/supercenters have steadily declined through 2023.
  • 2023 food at home (FAH) spend declined across nearly all the major channels except for online food sales which were up just +1.9%. Of note was a nearly -9% y/y c-store decline during 2023 which is consistent with declining fuel gallon sales (as consumers appear to be driving less).    

Food at Home Channel Change Y/Y Graph

Food Away from Home Channel Trends

  • The table below clearly highlights the post-lockdown consumer preference for food away from home.
  • Sizeable share gains for hotels & schools over the last couple of years are notable.  
  • The impact of material menu price increases over the last couple of years helps explain moderating inflation adjusted restaurant sales growth over the last 2 years, with both QSR & FSR underperforming the total FAFH 2023 growth rate.

Food away from Home Channel Change Y/Y Chart

Source: Calculated by USDA, ERS from various sources, June 3, 2024.

Marketing Consumer Research Weekly Banner

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox