Estimated monthly sales for retail & food services increased +8.4% on an annualized, sequential m/m basis during July 2023. While this looks great & helps explain the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for +5.9% 3Q23 real GDP growth, a closer look at the details reveals ongoing consumer struggles.
Commentary
- July’s retail sales data reveal how consumers were spreading their savings at the gas pump into lower ticket purchases outlined in the table below (ranked by sequential m/m growth).
- Notably, online represented the fastest growing category (Jul 23/Jun 23), followed by sporting goods, food services & drinking places, and clothing.
- In turn, we see consumers shying away from high-ticket items during July, with particular weakness in furniture & electronics.
- Thank goodness for lower gas prices, but what will going forward retail sales results look like with pump prices headed up again (see bottom chart)?
Source: Monthly Retail Trade – Sales Report (census.gov)
