Dashboard Capital Markets February 2024

Feb 1, 2024 | Dashboard, Restaurant Research

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The market & restaurant stocks struggled in January, reflecting: fears that an unpopular Middle Eastern war is expanding beyond Gaza, dragging U.S. soldiers into harm’s way; Powell’s unwillingness to cut rates in March even as the U.S. economy languishes; and concerns that continued evidence of consumer weakness could harm restaurant traffic & sales.

Comments

  • 2024 started off with a big spike (+16%) in the VIX fear gauge during January which is not surprising given all the neocon calls for war with Iran. The resultant global flight to safety was evident by a declining 10-year treasury rate (see chart below) and an increasing US$. Conversely, we see weakness in less secure asset classes, including small cap stocks (Russell 2000) and the vulnerable emerging markets. 

Jan Dashboard Major Index Table
US Bond 10Y Graph

  • QSR stock performance was mixed with big gains from Potbelly which was upgraded by an analyst to a buy recommendation in the middle of the month with a $15 price target and Carrols (BK franchisee) which has agreed to be acquired by its franchisor Restaurant Brands International. Growth investors continue to reward Wingstop, CAVA & Chipotle which standout in a challenging consumer economic backdrop.

QSR Stocks Chart

FSR Stocks Chart

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