Dashboard: Capital Markets

Dec 2, 2022 | Dashboard, Restaurant Research

Stock Performance


It was a good month for QSR stocks (particularly Starbucks) with a median share price increase of +9%. We can see that Wall Street analysts are very bullish on fast food, with this sector benefitting from: an asset-light franchising model; “margin harvesting” – maintaining price increases while food & labor inflation starts to moderate; trade-down from FSR and higher-income consumers; and an improving ability to implement strategic pricing, passing along price hikes to those that can afford it while keeping the lower-income demo in the game with margin friendly value deals.

QSR Stocks November

While FSR stocks have not fared as well during the last month, we can see that analysts also expect good things for their going forward financial performance. These names also stand to benefit from moderating food & labor costs against a backdrop of healthy employment levels. Dining out still represents an affordable luxury for cash-strapped but employed consumers. Notably, Cracker Barrel just lowered its revenue forecast for fiscal 2023 down from +7% to +8% to +6% to +8% (not a big deal), citing that inflation, low consumer confidence and a volatile macro environment will pose a short-term challenge.

FSR Stocks November

Macro Forecasts


Despite aggressive rate hikes, economists still expect a soft landing for now. With GDP levels forecasted to approach zero growth at the beginning of the new year, they are expected to recover during 2H22 as inflation starts to subsidize. In any case, the Fed continues to reiterate its belief that the labor market represents the key to getting inflation under control as it walks a tight rope by increasing unemployment (to diminish demand with rate hikes) without completely ruining the economy. To learn more about the Fed’s strategy, please review our latest post here.


Restaurant Research

Email Sign-up

15 Second Posts

The Importance of the Balance Sheet in Financial Analysis

While most investors are focused on sales growth & margins, they would be well served to further consider the strength of a company’s balance sheet. We look at BlackRock’s financial condition as an illustrative point.

The Importance of Free Cash Flow in Financial Analysis

Cash represents the lifeblood of all business enterprises which is why it is important to analyze free cash flow which we define as operating cash flow minus capex, dividends, and stock buybacks. We illustrate DoorDash as an example of why cash flow analysis is so important. 

Lessons From Tucker Carlson

There are many theories about why Fox booted Tucker Carlson, but it may be a very simple reason which can instruct everyone involved in the consumer retail segment.

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

This week we spotlight efforts by international agencies to lower the earth’s temperature by imposing onerous regulations on energy producers. We suggest it will be better to: begin a process of implementing continuous improvements designed to support both economic & climate progress; and use international organizations to share tech & best practices as opposed to providing them with regulatory powers best left to individual nation-states.   

Part 3 – It’s Nice for the US to Save the Climate, But What About the Rest of the World?

In our last 2 posts, we outlined the probability that the UN’s push to lower the world’s temperature by -2 degrees Celsius could drive significant U.S. energy price hikes & shortages. How is this going to help as Asia ramps up the use of coal? Can humans lower the earth’s temperature anyhow?

Part 2: Who is Left to Make Investments in Fossil Fuels & Clean Energy?

There is not a lot of incentive for profit-seeking companies to invest in demonized fossil fuels or in clean energy projects lacking ROI. This points to substantially higher energy prices and supply shortages that will have a profound economic impact.

Part 1: Ramping Energy Demand Clashes with UN’s Environmental Goals

From 2021 to 2050, ExxonMobil forecasts that 85% of the population growth will be driven by developing countries, which in turn, will drive a +15% increase in energy demand.

What if the Federal Government Was Turned into a 501c3 Non-Profit?

Given all the focus on the debt ceiling, we propose a thought experiment in which all 100 federal agencies must compete for charitable donations. If taxpayers get to choose for themselves what to fund, what might we learn? 

Like Sinatra Croons: “So you see it’s all up to you, you can be better than you are.”

The top-paid hourly workers are currently enjoying the fastest wage growth, indicative of the current challenge to recruit & retain a skilled labor force.

Switching Jobs Paid Big Time in April

While declining labor turnover was a common theme during the 1Q23 investor calls, wage data shows that there is still good reason for employees to job-hop.

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Restaurant Research

A Restaurant Research LLC Company