4Q:22 Investor Call Analysis

Mar 16, 2023 | Insights, Restaurant Research

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Sales, Costs & Key Industry Commentary

4Q22 Sales & Cost Summary Chart
4Q22 FSR SSS Graph
Applebee’sOperators have been keeping menu price increases to roughly half the inflation rate.
Chili’sCompany store comp of +8% consisted of +9.7% price and +5.5% mix offset by a -7.6% traffic decline (dine-in traffic remains slightly below covid levels). 
Denny’sComps increase consisted of +7.5% price/+1% mix/-6.5% traffic. 67% of the system is now open 24/7, up +14% since midyear 2022. Notably, comps from 24/7 units outperform non-24/7 units by mid-teens.
IHOPValue (a key construct currently) is provided with offers like: IHOPPY Hour program; BOGO crepes LTO; $6 Rooty Tooty at the beginning of the year; and customized loyalty value offers. 
4Q22 Burger SSS Graph
McDonald’sResults driven by pricing & traffic with contributions from its Cactus Plant Flea Market promotion, McRib, Boo Buckets, digital (up +40% y/y) and delivery.
Jack in the BoxResults were attributed to: its hook-and-build menu strategy; higher staffing levels (particularly during late-night); improving service speed; and a reduction in service alert problems.
Wendy’sBreakfast sales peaked at $3k+/week, driven by its first major breakfast innovation (French Toast Sticks) and its traffic-driving $3 Croissant promotion.
Burger KingReclaim the Flame initiatives are starting to gain traction.
4Q22 Pizza SSS Graph
Papa John’sAbility to hold-on to post-covid pizza demand spike during 2022 attributed to impactful menu innovations. 
Pizza HutResults driven by: new ads highlighting both premium & value; growth from delivery partners; and its new Melts product.
Domino’sCarryout comp was +14.3% during the quarter (+31% on a 3-year basis) while delivery comps declined -6.6% (+3.3% on a 3-year basis).
4Q22 Chicken SSS Graph
WingstopEfforts to increase AUV from $1.6MM currently to $2MM will be driven by: increased brand awareness; menu innovation; expanded delivery channel; data-driven marketing approach; and digital platform upgrades.
KFCNew wrap product enhances value positioning.
Popeye’sSales benefit from launch of its Black & Chicken Sandwich, digital and operational improvements.

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