3Q23 Real GDP Up +4.9%

Oct 30, 2023 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

Are you wondering how the real GDP grew almost 5% y/y during the third quarter given all the so/so corporate commentary that we have been reporting on? Well, we are also scratching our heads about this “hidden” economic strength… In any case, disposable personal income growth of +7.4% & a +6.7% personal outlay increase portrays a solid consumer through 3Q.

Commentary

  • +7.4% y/y disposable personal income (DPI) growth during 3Q was driven by: (1) +5.5% salary growth which benefitted from a tight labor market to go with healthy raises; (2) social security payments up +12% reflecting a hefty cost of living increase; and (3) lower tax payments.   
  • A +6.7% y/y increase in personal outlay spending (consumption) reflected +7.4% growth in spending on services & a material +50% hike in personal interest payments (which amounted to just 2.6% of total personal outlays).
  • Notably, personal savings increased +26% y/y to a solid 3.8% of DPI. 
  • Net/net, the government’s 3Q consumer finance numbers are solid if they are accurate!
Personal Income Data 3Q23

Source: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

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