2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Feb 13, 2024 | Macro Insights, No Bull Economics

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The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did 3 months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1% this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.8% percent in the last survey.

Comments

  • The forecasters see the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter at 17.3%, down sharply from the previous estimate of 40.9%. Moreover, they have also lowered their probability estimates for negative growth for the following 3 quarters, compared with their previous estimates. The forecasters now predict a (nearly) 25% chance of a contraction in real GDP in each of the remaining 3 quarters in 2024.
  • The forecasters also expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 2.5% at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 2.8% in the previous survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter is also expected to be lower at an annual rate of 1.9%, down from the previous estimate of 2.5%.
  • Notably, the seasonally adjusted CPI-U increased +0.3% in January (after increasing +0.2% in December) & increased +3.1% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.

Median Forecasts for GDP, Unemployment Rate, Payrolls

Source: First Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org)

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