This Week in Summary 9/30/2022

Sep 30, 2022 | Bubble Monitor, No Bull Economics

Bubble Monitor Chart

Here is a test for our readers: what caused the 9/29/22 market sell-off that sent the S&P 500 to its lowest level so far in 2022? A) Hurricane Ian, B) jobless claims hitting a 5-month low – implying the need for more Fed hikes to “cool” the economy, C) increasing attention to weakening European economies and currencies, D) NATO’s threat to retaliate against the apparent sabotage of Russia’s Nord Stream natural gas pipeline which was already shut-off, or E) Russia’s preparation to annex 4 regions in Ukraine. Ok, we admit that we are not exactly sure of the answer, especially after the S&P 500’s inexplicable +2% increase the previous day. In any case, the Bubble Monitor for the period ending 9/29/22 doesn’t look good and mirrors FedEx’s recent announcement that its real retail sales are “pacing to have the worst decline since The Great Recession”. Maybe the best part of all that red in the dashboard is the drop in crude oil prices which will hopefully lead to even lower gas prices, thus strengthening the stressed low-income consumer. In any case, those wishing to cheat on the above test may simply answer: silly rabbit, we don’t have to worry about the sell-off because we have Modern Monetary Theory to save us. Let’s go with that!     

Publications

Is FedEx a “canary in a coal mine”?

Currency Wars

Modern Monetary Theory

Par Tech

Darden’s Sneak Preview

Follow us on LinkedInTwitterFacebook, and YouTube!

Disclaimer of Liability
No Bull Economics
Restaurant Research

Email Sign-up

Jack in the Box Corporate Insights

Jack in the Box results reflected an improvement in: dining room openings (60% of system); innovation, upsell & add-ons sales; digital progress which is helping frequency; and late-night.

How to Circumvent Food Shortages?

The vulnerabilities of a long-distance supply chain have become very evident over the last couple of years, especially when it comes to farming.

This Week in Summary 11/18/2022

We want to spotlight Target this week which provides valuable insight on consumer spending.

How Would You Value the Federal Reserve?

Here is an idea: let’s take the Federal Reserve public in the world’s largest IPO.

How to Pass Along Inflationary Costs Without Losing Traffic?

Wendy’s is avoiding standardized menu price increases and turning to strategic increases designed not to price out lower income consumers.

Investors in Retail Stocks Think Consumers are Back

Recent retail stock gains would suggest that investors are confident in consumer strength, despite continuing inflationary issues.

Papa John’s & Chili’s Reveal the Plight of Cash Strapped Consumers

The relevant question remains whether consumers who are increasingly cash-strapped can be convinced to pay more for higher quality levels?

This Week in Summary 11/11/2022

Market melt up & the midterm elections

DoorDash’s Grip on Labor Costs is Funding New Investments

Doordash’s platform generated +10% of all restaurant industry sales.

3Q Results for Bloomin’, Texas Roadhouse & Cheesecake

Full serve restaurant sales performance is currently a function of customer demographics.

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Restaurant Research

A Restaurant Research LLC Company