Soft Landing?

Jun 29, 2023 | Bubble Monitor, No Bull Economics

Weekly Dashboards

Macro trends are generally looking up, with the major banks passing their stress test, the labor market hopefully headed for a soft landing and inflation cooling. If the Fed can chill out & the mayors of the big cities can keep things sufficiently habitable to avoid a run on commercial real estate, the U.S. economy might just get back to the business of prosperity.

Bubble Monitor Chart


Commodity prices are finally coming down, but what about labor? The data suggests that employers are poised to get some relief at the same time employees continue to enjoy raises. 

  • Given the reality that the Fed’s rate policy continues to dictate stock market performance, investors remain focused on inflation cues that will prompt more stock-punishing rate hikes. Specifically, the Fed has been focused on the labor market which represents a key price catalyst in their opinion.
  • Fortunately, hourly wage growth and job listing trends are beginning to moderate as indicated in the chart below.
  • While we take Powell at his word that more rate hikes are forthcoming during 2H23, it is possible that more favorable news about moderating inflation could soften his stance. Indeed, this would be very good news for the market.  
Hourly Wage and Job Posting Graph

Weekly Publications

Public Posts

Economic Insights from FedEx’s 4Q23 Results

ZIM Integrated Shipping’s Top-Line Performance Provides Insight into Inflation Prospects

Debt’s Proper Use

Premium Posts

Darden’s +2.5-3.5% Comp Guidance Reflect Higher Pricing & Flat Traffic

Highlights from Domino’s Presentation at the Consumer Growth & E-Commerce Conference

Walgreen’s Fiscal 3Q23 Results: Pharma Inflation Squeezes Retail Spend

Dollar Tree Reports 1Q23 Enterprise Comps Up +4.8% Y/Y

CarMax Reports Improving Fiscal 1Q24 Trends

RR Research Reports

Applebees Report 2023

Marketing Consumer Research Weekly Banner

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox