NoBull 4Q23 Consumer Economic Dashboard

Feb 28, 2024 | No Bull Economics, Reports

While the consumer continues to hang in according to the recently released 4Q23 NoBull Consumer Economic Dashboard, persistently high interest rates are a mounting problem.

Key Consumer Economic Metrics

Key Findings from 4Q23 NoBull Consumer Economic Dashboard

  1. 4Q23 consumer economic tailwinds: retail sales could be stronger, but remain healthy at +3%; strong personal consumption expenditures growing at mid-single-digits with spending on services continuing to outdistance spending on goods; inflation continues to trend down with the PCE price inflator (Fed’s primary gauge) dropping to +2.7%; declining gas prices; strong employment; healthy disposable personal income growth at +6.4%; and a decent savings rate.  
  2. 4Q23 consumer economic headwinds: Mounting pressure from higher interest rates (including 21% credit card interest rates & 7% mortgage rates) has driven a 16% increase in personal bankruptcies over 2023. Similarly, credit card delinquencies are at their highest level since covid, although they remain at a manageable level for the time being (see chart below).

Consumer & Credit Card Loans Deliquency Rate Chart

View Report Outline

Learn About NoBull’s All-Inclusive Report Subscription

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox