Is the Bond Bubble Finally Unraveling?

Oct 5, 2022 | Finconomics 101, No Bull Economics

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Yield-seeking investors will often choose between bonds and dividend-paying stocks. When bond yields increase, the relative value of dividend stocks is diminished. When bond yields decrease, the appeal of dividend stocks increases. This chart illustrates the historical premium of the 10-year treasury rate over the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 (median premium of just over 3% since 1962).

Notably, the premium after 2008 (Great Recession) through 2021 was just 0.4% which is indicative of artificially depressed interest rates meant to prop up the economy. This created a bond bubble which is now beginning to unwind (as bond rates go higher, bond prices go lower) caused by the ongoing Fed rate hikes leading to the current ~1.9% premium of the 10-year over the S&P 500 dividend yield. More pain for the bond market is likely necessary to revert to the 3% median. 

Valuing Bonds vs. Stocks Graph
Valuing Bonds vs. Stocks Graph

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