ANALYZING THE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS OF COMP SALES
FSR 1Q:22 comp performance for $1B+ chains outperformed the annual average for the 3-year stack comp as the sit-down concepts continue their recovery. Conversely, this same comparison shows QSR comps slowing, mirroring recent industry commentary about how the higher income demo (FSR) has been more resilient to current economic conditions relative to the lower income demo (QSR).
While negative 2Q:22 traffic prospects (as indicated by RR’s consumer survey which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month) are beginning to recover, they are indicative of the severe inflationary impact on all consumers.
The overall restaurant industry does benefit from the fact that menu price inflation is more moderate compared to grocery store price increases. It is not surprising to see more subdued QSR menu price increases relative to FSR given segment comp trends identified in the first chart.