Netflix’s stock has tanked because its forecasted revenue growth is expected to decline by half to +10% y/y for the first half of 2022 down from +19% during 2021. 10% growth is not bad, but global paid memberships are expected to decline from a 2021 high. The company attributes this to new competition plus the fact that its household penetration (when including all the people sharing their accounts) is maxed out. Globally, Netflix estimates that its subscriptions are shared with 100 million additional households. To improve sales, the company plans to improve its content and to start charging for those sharing with friends & family for free.
Netflix losing Steam
Apr 20, 2022 | Bubble Monitor
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We Have a Plan to Rescue the US Dollar
While NoBull’s simple 1% Plan to fix America’s deteriorating financial condition will not cure our condition overnight, it could buy us some time by setting the U.S. dollar on a firmer foundation.
A Run on the Fed?
The Fed has crushed its own bond portfolio by hiking interest rates. Maybe there will not be a run on the Fed, but perhaps we should be more concerned about a run on the US$.
China Schools the US on Morality
Must read: China lectures about U.S. Hegemony & Its Perils. Maybe China would prefer if it had hegemony instead? Some classify this diatribe published in February 2023 as an informal declaration of war.
What is Going on with the Banks?
The frailty of the banking system has come front & center over the last couple of weeks as more secondary, unintended symptoms develop from the Fed’s race to raise interest rates.
Powell Faults an Overheated Labor Market for the Need to Hike Rates Again
Despite growing evidence of systematic bank risks associated with the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes over the last year, Powell hikes another 25 bps anyhow, citing labor pressure as the culprit. However, in the real world, labor conditions are already improving.
Fixed-Income Issuance Says a Lot About Economy
Total U.S. fixed income (FI) issuance declined -34% y/y to $8.8 trillion during 2022 as interest rates ramped up.
Bank Deposits Growing Much Faster than Business Loan Demand
Banks have been parking excess deposits in various forms of government debt that are subject to interest rate risk & in some cases, risky crypto bets. This is causing systematic risk.
Nerdwallet Survey Shows an Indebted & Very Stressed Consumer
Consumers are combating the higher price of living & higher interest rates by driving less, buying store brands & taking on more debt.
The United States of America is Worth Saving
Americans need to be reminded about our heritage as the single most productive nation as measured by GDP/person with a unique capability to bless the entire world if we can simply get back to business.
Should Private Banks Go Extinct?
Since the 2008 Great Recession, 134 banks with assets of $1.25 Trillion have been closed by regulators. At the same time, the Fed’s ballooning balance sheet now amounts to nearly 50% of total domestic bank deposits.
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