McDonald’s

May 6, 2019 | Report Announcements

McDonald’s is gaining traction with an extremely ambitious modernization program with many moving parts. Its repositioning strategy includes: retaining existing customers by bolstering core strength in family occasions & food-led breakfast; regaining lost customers by improving food taste, quality, convenience & value; and converting casual customers to committed by elevating & leveraging the McCafé platform while also improving its food health profile. To this end, its menu positioning continues to transition to fresh & healthy and its food journey has included: adding fresh beef to its Quarter Pounder burgers (an answer to Wendy’s); re-introduction of McCafe espresso products to better position against Dunkin’; intro of Buttermilk Crispy Tenders (an answer to Chick-fil-A); reduced use of antibiotics in its beef supply chains; removal of artificial preservatives in its Chicken McNuggets; and improved health profile for its Happy Meals. The goal is to convert casual traffic into committed customers who can be comfortable that higher frequency at McDonald’s can actually support good health. In turn, the brand’s people & facility investments provide it with authority to discuss menu improvements which appeal to families & younger consumers. While comps have outperformed for the last 2 years, traffic declined in 2018 and into 1Q19 (which reflects the chain’s upscale repositioning). Going forward traffic should benefit from: an effort to run better restaurants (digesting all the recent changes & reducing executional complexities) with a renewed focus on drive-thru ops; plans to fine-tune value deal promotions; refinements in digital & delivery; and progress with EOTF and reimaging. Also, corporate expects to win back breakfast traffic with a combination of: national value; a return to local breakfast deals in recognition of differing regional preferences; and new food offerings. In any case, the brand continues to struggle with balancing its need to provide value to drive traffic with its desire to move towards higher margin, more upscale products. Just as value is foundational to this brand, so is service speed/convenience and in a well justified sprint to modernize, the system has added operational complexities which have slowed speeds. Declining store-level profits, increased capex requirements and increasing operational complexity has prompted the recent organization of the National Owners Association to represent the concerns of 1,000 franchisees and operators report that cooperation between franchisor & franchisees has improved as a result. In conclusion, there was no easy way to modernize McDonald’s in a timely fashion and now the hard work of digesting & integrating all these changes is underway – hopefully, execution will proceed as fast as the implementation of the pivot.

Signup
NoBullEconomics
Restaurant Research

Email Sign-up

15 Second Posts

What is the Federal Government’s Job?

A couple of weeks ago we conducted a thought experiment in which the government became a nonprofit, and this week we propose another thought experiment in which the government becomes a public corporation. We suggest that this could provide very useful input into the debt ceiling debate.

The Importance of the Balance Sheet in Financial Analysis

While most investors are focused on sales growth & margins, they would be well served to further consider the strength of a company’s balance sheet. We look at BlackRock’s financial condition as an illustrative point.

The Importance of Free Cash Flow in Financial Analysis

Cash represents the lifeblood of all business enterprises which is why it is important to analyze free cash flow which we define as operating cash flow minus capex, dividends, and stock buybacks. We illustrate DoorDash as an example of why cash flow analysis is so important. 

Lessons From Tucker Carlson

There are many theories about why Fox booted Tucker Carlson, but it may be a very simple reason which can instruct everyone involved in the consumer retail segment.

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

This week we spotlight efforts by international agencies to lower the earth’s temperature by imposing onerous regulations on energy producers. We suggest it will be better to: begin a process of implementing continuous improvements designed to support both economic & climate progress; and use international organizations to share tech & best practices as opposed to providing them with regulatory powers best left to individual nation-states.   

Part 3 – It’s Nice for the US to Save the Climate, But What About the Rest of the World?

In our last 2 posts, we outlined the probability that the UN’s push to lower the world’s temperature by -2 degrees Celsius could drive significant U.S. energy price hikes & shortages. How is this going to help as Asia ramps up the use of coal? Can humans lower the earth’s temperature anyhow?

Part 2: Who is Left to Make Investments in Fossil Fuels & Clean Energy?

There is not a lot of incentive for profit-seeking companies to invest in demonized fossil fuels or in clean energy projects lacking ROI. This points to substantially higher energy prices and supply shortages that will have a profound economic impact.

Part 1: Ramping Energy Demand Clashes with UN’s Environmental Goals

From 2021 to 2050, ExxonMobil forecasts that 85% of the population growth will be driven by developing countries, which in turn, will drive a +15% increase in energy demand.

What if the Federal Government Was Turned into a 501c3 Non-Profit?

Given all the focus on the debt ceiling, we propose a thought experiment in which all 100 federal agencies must compete for charitable donations. If taxpayers get to choose for themselves what to fund, what might we learn? 

Like Sinatra Croons: “So you see it’s all up to you, you can be better than you are.”

The top-paid hourly workers are currently enjoying the fastest wage growth, indicative of the current challenge to recruit & retain a skilled labor force.

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Restaurant Research

A Restaurant Research LLC Company