Fed’s Involvement in Inflation Part 2

Apr 14, 2022 | Finconomics 101

Following-up on our explanation about the first cause of inflation (supply & demand for goods), we continue here with the second cause of inflation. 

Inflation can also be caused by the Fed’s money creation efforts. The Fed may try to prop-up a troubled economy by flooding the banks with money to lend to consumers and businesses, which results in lower interest rates. The hope is that this will stimulate consumers and businesses to borrow and spend sufficiently to restore economic growth. The problem comes when the Fed lets this go on for too long and the easy money remains available after the crisis has passed. This results in consumers and businesses borrowing more than they should (because they are human) and buying more on credit than they would if interest rates were higher. In this case, debt funded demand exceeds supply, driving prices higher (inflation). The easiest way to understand this is to notice what happens to home prices when mortgage rates are low. People qualify to borrow more than they would if interest rates were higher, and they bid up home prices. Imagine how cheap home prices would be if everyone had to pay cash???

More recently, the Fed has worked at propping-up a troubled economy by sending money directly to consumers (i.e. government stimulus checks) rather than by solely flooding the banks with money. The Fed can do this indirectly by buying government debt that is used to fund “stimulus” checks. This reflects that sometimes lower interest rates are insufficient to prompt more borrowing and spending so the Fed floods consumers with money directly hoping that they spend (as opposed to save) to jump-start the economy.

Follow us on LinkedInTwitter, and Facebook!

Disclaimer of Liability: Although the information in this post has been obtained from sources NBE Media LLC believes to be reliable, NBE does not guarantee its accuracy. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice and in no case can be considered as an offer or solicitation with regard to the purchase or sales of any securities. NBE Media LLC’s analyses and opinions are not a guarantee of the future performance of the economy nor any industry, company or security. NBE Media LLC disclaims all liability for any misstatements or omissions that occur in the publication of this post. In making this post available, no client, advisory, fiduciary or professional relationship is implied or established. While this post is intended to provide an relevant economic analysis, it cannot be used as a substitute for independent investigations and sound business judgment.
Marketing NFS Graphic Updated
NoBull Posts Thumbnail
Restaurant Research

Email Sign-up

15 Second Posts

2Q23 Retail Same Store Sales

NoBull’s Retail Same Store Sales Report benchmarks 80+ large consumer retail companies by domestic same store sales including annual (2019 – 2022) and quarterly results (2Q22 to 2Q23).

Walmart Investor Presentation: Inflation Here to Stay

While general merchandise prices are lower y/y, they remain elevated compared to 2 years ago. As Walmart does not believe general merchandise and food (dry grocery) & consumable prices are ever going to completely disinflate, management suggests the need for a country-wide wage increase rebalancing.

Interesting Conversation with Fed Chair Powell

Okay, Powell didn’t actually take our call, but we offer a transcript of a potential discussion between the Fed Chair and John Q. Public. It’s very insightful, so please read on.

The Problem with Investment Diversification

Every investment advisor and business student knows that portfolio diversification is key to wealth building. Show me an investor who can beat the S&P 500 Index by buying a few handpicked stocks and I will show you a hedge fund manager in the making. However, there is a huge problem with this strategy that no one is talking about.

Part 3: Analyzing Performance of Low-Income Oriented Retail Companies

We created an index for the financial performance of 5 low-income oriented retail companies to assess the health of this demo. While we recognize that these companies have benefited from the trade-down of higher-income consumers, things look reasonable at least through calendar 2Q23. 

Part 2: Incremental Interest Payments Squeeze Disposable Income

In this post, we quantify the pressure on disposable income driven by credit card & auto loan payment increases since the onset of the Fed rate hikes in early 2022 in addition to the impact of the coming resumption of student loan payments in October 2023.

Part 1: Keeping an Eye on the Consumer’s Top-Line

The consumer’s top-line benefits from a high employment rate, generous raises, and a healthy savings rate which indicates an income surplus.

Teenage Wasteland No More

The American youth (15 – 24-year-old) unemployment rate makes our country look downright productive compared to the rest of the world!

The Fight for Global Manufacturing Gets Personal

Post-covid U.S. exports of goods & services have skyrocketed as American companies have worked hard to onshore their supply chains, providing them with products to sell overseas. Correspondingly, U.S. imports from China have fallen considerably since late 2022 after China’s extended covid lockdowns left their American customers without product to sell.  

China’s Deflation Looks Pretty Good Compared to U.S. Inflation

While the U.S. has been suffering from severe post-covid inflation, China’s prices have been spiraling lower. What’s up with that?

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Restaurant Research

A Restaurant Research LLC Company