Domino’s is well positioned as the largest US pizza chain (36% delivery share & 15% carryout share) with a 40% domestic share among the top 4 players. This iconic brand is well known for its: leading-edge, digital ordering convenience/speed & seamless payments; compelling everyday value offers; and fast delivery (representing 2/3 of sales). Its impressive 75% digital sales mix drives higher group checks and includes more high margin add-on sales enabled by its broad menu (specialty chicken, wings, stuffed cheesy bread, salads & desserts). A 29MM member Piece of the Pie Rewards loyalty program also drives frequency with marketing customization and discounts (every 7th pie free). Notably, after system comps outperformed for 8 years (2013 – 2020), Domino’s same-store-sales underperformed slightly in 2021 and again during 1Q22. A -3.6% 1Q22 system comp decline was attributed to an omicron surge, staffing shortages and unprecedented inflation. Staffing challenges (delivery drivers preferring to work for the DSPs) resulted in reduced store hours (equivalent to the loss of 6 days during the quarter). Currently, Domino’s marketing strategy is to re-engage carryout customers that retreated post-covid and to drive more trial from new customers. However, as Domino’s is less well known for carryout (remembering Domino’s delivers core equity), the brand is challenged to drive its high margin carryout business which offers customers a less expensive option (without delivery charges & tips). In any case, while this pivot may be well suited for consumers trading-down in a weaker economy, it is also oriented towards a financially stressed lower income demo. Also of note is that corporate has indicated that its once “sacred” $5.99 & $7.99 price points are no longer sacred after already making recent changes to its core, long-dated everyday value equation in response to the current inflation shock. In conclusion, Domino’s extended record of sales outperformance is now threatened by a necessary move away from its core equities in the form of price certain value and fast delivery while it pivots towards carryout and higher prices.
