Church’s Chicken is a 65+ year old regional brand that is well established as a key chicken segment player (especially within core markets). Its ongoing brand repositioning includes: new marketing efforts; improved communication/relationships with franchisees & employees (new Excellence Advisory Council); supply chain improvements; and new, contemporary remodel elements and training. Its brand new “Bringin’ That Down Home Flavor” campaign will introduce Church’s fresh, contemporary look & feel that emphasizes the brand’s culinary skill (Texas heritage) and personal authenticity. TV spots (first national campaign in decades) are shot in a test kitchen, highlighting fresh ingredients and careful preparation. The brand seeks to expand its reach to a new generation of guests that are driven by different expectations around services like digital & delivery and the new VP of digital marketing & technology brings to bear “consumer centric” market analysis used as a basis to form digital media marketing, consumer relationship management and social media strategy. Church’s strategy is to target both long-time loyalists along with new guests with Church’s mix of Southern heritage and bold Texas taste provided by its original hand-battered fried chicken (that can be spiced with jalapenos to squeeze on top) which is complimented by classics that include baked macaroni & cheese and scratch-made Honey Butter Biscuits. Its value proposition is augmented by customization and a complete, authentic meal prepared by hand by real people at a competitive price and chicken is made in small batches all day long while biscuits are drizzled with sweet honey-butter right out of the oven. Discount promotions in store windows are important sales drivers with bundle deals at the $5, $10 & $20 price points (dark meat offers provide more pieces for the money) and national promotions also feature $5, $15 & $20 price points. 3rd party delivery is available in 62% of system and Church’s will soon launch order-ahead & pickup as well. Having said all this, sales trends for this smallest national bone-in chicken player have been pressured by: lack of media efficiency; strong competition from national bone-in chicken players (particularly Popeyes & KFC) and regional bone-in players (like Chicken Express in Texas); QSR sandwich discounting to go with this segment’s strong incursion into chicken products (such as Burger King’s 10 chicken nuggets for $1 promotion); increased competition from supermarkets; and a secular trend towards healthier foods & boneless chicken. Church’s orientation towards inner cities has also magnified segment sales challenges given an extended period of consumer weakness among the lower income demo. Resultantly, its franchisee AUV has not increased much beyond its 2011 level thus slowing the pace of reimaging and development. In conclusion, Church’s is executing around a solid strategy that should help sales, unit level profitability and capital investment over time.
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Darden 1Q24: Sales +11.6% Y/Y, Comps +5.5% Y/Y
Darden reported that industry same-restaurant sales increased +0.9% and industry same-restaurant guest counts decreased -4.2% during its fiscal 1Q24. The chain’s comps outperformed the industry by +4.1% and its traffic outperformed by +4.3% (= flattish traffic for Darden during the quarter).
Job Market Looks Solid
In this chart, we subtract total quits from total hires. The excess of hires over quits looks very good relative to the historical level even though the positive gap recently dipped slightly. Workers are staying at their jobs longer even as they continue to have new employment opportunities.
The Economics of Politics
As the U.S. gears up for the 2024 elections, it is important to consider changes to our elections and governance that can unite the citizens of this great country.
2Q23 Retail Same Store Sales
NoBull’s Retail Same Store Sales Report benchmarks 80+ large consumer retail companies by domestic same store sales including annual (2019 – 2022) and quarterly results (2Q22 to 2Q23).
Walmart Investor Presentation: Inflation Here to Stay
While general merchandise prices are lower y/y, they remain elevated compared to 2 years ago. As Walmart does not believe general merchandise and food (dry grocery) & consumable prices are ever going to completely disinflate, management suggests the need for a country-wide wage increase rebalancing.
Interesting Conversation with Fed Chair Powell
Okay, Powell didn’t actually take our call, but we offer a transcript of a potential discussion between the Fed Chair and John Q. Public. It’s very insightful, so please read on.
The Problem with Investment Diversification
Every investment advisor and business student knows that portfolio diversification is key to wealth building. Show me an investor who can beat the S&P 500 Index by buying a few handpicked stocks and I will show you a hedge fund manager in the making. However, there is a huge problem with this strategy that no one is talking about.
Part 3: Analyzing Performance of Low-Income Oriented Retail Companies
We created an index for the financial performance of 5 low-income oriented retail companies to assess the health of this demo. While we recognize that these companies have benefited from the trade-down of higher-income consumers, things look reasonable at least through calendar 2Q23.
Part 2: Incremental Interest Payments Squeeze Disposable Income
In this post, we quantify the pressure on disposable income driven by credit card & auto loan payment increases since the onset of the Fed rate hikes in early 2022 in addition to the impact of the coming resumption of student loan payments in October 2023.
Part 1: Keeping an Eye on the Consumer’s Top-Line
The consumer’s top-line benefits from a high employment rate, generous raises, and a healthy savings rate which indicates an income surplus.
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