Applebee’s (the 2nd largest player by sales in the casual segment) benefits from its “Eatin’ Good in the Neighborhood” grill & bar positioning (approachable, accessible & affordable) which provides a place to connect with family & friends. Culinary innovation (leveraging mainstream American recipes/flavors) and buzzworthy Neighborhood drink of the month deals keep the restaurants interesting and LTOs almost always feature attractive price points and popular promotions including its All-You-Can-Eat Riblets. Its value positioning further benefits from abundant plate coverage, its popular 2 for $20+ everyday value platform and its $7.99 Irresist-A-Bowls. However, it is not easy for the brand to balance value (required by its core middle America customer to maintain traffic) with a need to attract guests willing to pay-up for higher checks. Also, the brand’s traffic challenges may reflect the economic condition of its core blue collar customers as much as it does with finding the appropriate value offers. Help may come from its success in driving high ticket, incremental off-premise sales. In any case, TV ads are well done (featuring compelling food photography set to famous pop songs to create emotional connections) and operations benefit from a reduction in store performance variability and back of the house simplifications. Also, operators report that the senior management team is considered very collaborative in its work with franchisees. Taken together, improving internal guest satisfaction scores speak volumes. In conclusion, while Applebee’s has worked hard to balance the pursuit of value for its core Middle American customers and increased relevancy to attract a younger guest, more time may be needed to address the disparate needs of these demos especially as the system seeks to recover from a post-lockdown world.
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2Q23 Retail Same Store Sales
NoBull’s Retail Same Store Sales Report benchmarks 80+ large consumer retail companies by domestic same store sales including annual (2019 – 2022) and quarterly results (2Q22 to 2Q23).
Walmart Investor Presentation: Inflation Here to Stay
While general merchandise prices are lower y/y, they remain elevated compared to 2 years ago. As Walmart does not believe general merchandise and food (dry grocery) & consumable prices are ever going to completely disinflate, management suggests the need for a country-wide wage increase rebalancing.
Interesting Conversation with Fed Chair Powell
Okay, Powell didn’t actually take our call, but we offer a transcript of a potential discussion between the Fed Chair and John Q. Public. It’s very insightful, so please read on.
The Problem with Investment Diversification
Every investment advisor and business student knows that portfolio diversification is key to wealth building. Show me an investor who can beat the S&P 500 Index by buying a few handpicked stocks and I will show you a hedge fund manager in the making. However, there is a huge problem with this strategy that no one is talking about.
Part 3: Analyzing Performance of Low-Income Oriented Retail Companies
We created an index for the financial performance of 5 low-income oriented retail companies to assess the health of this demo. While we recognize that these companies have benefited from the trade-down of higher-income consumers, things look reasonable at least through calendar 2Q23.
Part 2: Incremental Interest Payments Squeeze Disposable Income
In this post, we quantify the pressure on disposable income driven by credit card & auto loan payment increases since the onset of the Fed rate hikes in early 2022 in addition to the impact of the coming resumption of student loan payments in October 2023.
Part 1: Keeping an Eye on the Consumer’s Top-Line
The consumer’s top-line benefits from a high employment rate, generous raises, and a healthy savings rate which indicates an income surplus.
Teenage Wasteland No More
The American youth (15 – 24-year-old) unemployment rate makes our country look downright productive compared to the rest of the world!
The Fight for Global Manufacturing Gets Personal
Post-covid U.S. exports of goods & services have skyrocketed as American companies have worked hard to onshore their supply chains, providing them with products to sell overseas. Correspondingly, U.S. imports from China have fallen considerably since late 2022 after China’s extended covid lockdowns left their American customers without product to sell.
China’s Deflation Looks Pretty Good Compared to U.S. Inflation
While the U.S. has been suffering from severe post-covid inflation, China’s prices have been spiraling lower. What’s up with that?
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