UPS & AMEX Provide Valuable Insight into Consumer Health

Nov 8, 2022 | Corporate Insights, No Bull Economics


UPS reported that the macro economy remained dynamic during 3Q22 and that a strong job market & healthy consumer spending overpowered higher inflation and rising interest rates. However, UPS has been raising their prices to offset supply-chain issues, which is, in turn, driving down its volume. B2B average daily volume was down -0.5% y/y due to declines in manufacturing volumes, partially offset by growth in retail B2B driven by returns volume.

UPS Stock Performance
UPS Stock Performance

AMEX reported a strong 3Q22 for consumers who are spending more on travel (up +57% y/y including an uptick in international & business travel) and goods & services (up +16% y/y including sustained post-covid e-commerce strength). Further, corporate reported that its average customer came-in with much higher spend patterns & much better average credit quality. Its consumer business was up +22% y/y, Millennial spending up +39 y/y and international spending up +37% y/y. A rapid increase in spending from Millennials & Gen Z is driven by new online & mobile benefits added to its value proposition. Notably, loan growth was up +31% y/y, which is an industry-leading level of loan growth. Finally, AMEX’s Resy restaurant reservation platform has tripled its membership to 35MM since the company acquired the platform in 2019 while quadrupling the number of global restaurants now listed on Resy.

Amex Stock Performance
Amex Stock Performance

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