What can we learn from the experimental covid stimulus payouts?
With stimulus cash running out, consumer spending is dropping like a rock.
In the second part of our three-part series on inflation, we take a look at the Fed’s involvement in money supply and interest rates.
State of the Consumer: (1) While government stimulus was successful at buoying the 2-year annual growth rate for total retail sales to a level slightly higher than pre-lockdown results, there was a clear market share shift among industries as consumers pivoted to a new reality; (2) The key question is how much grocery spend will return to the restaurant space over time?
• While the previous eye-popping growth of RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) maybe slowing, it looks like sales for June will still be strong on a y/y basis.
• So it appears that even as stimulus tapers, consumer demand remains robust as consumer confidence continues to rebound and jobless claims drop to a post-lockdown low.
• We decided to survey franchisees to check comments from some 1Q21 investor calls in which management teams portrayed the labor market as possibly one of the worst ever.
• Despite a relatively high level of unemployment, it seems clear that the industry is facing a labor shortage.