• 2020 new build ROIs continued a declining trend, reflecting: higher construction costs; moderating new build AUV growth; and store-level margin pressure.
• A ramping build vs. buy ratio reflects the above trends in addition to declining acquisition multiples.
• This suggests that growth minded operators are more likely to buy than build for the time being.
investor calls
2Q20 Investor Call Summary & Analysis
Hopefully the trough of a shocking Black Swan event, 2Q20 gave us an average comp decline of -15.4% for 23 $1B+ chains under coverage. Notably, there was a very wide dispersion of results with a comp high of +32% (Wingstop) all the way to a low of -59% (IHOP) as consumers decidedly shifted away from dine-in to low-contact off-premise solutions.
1Q20 Investor Calls: Key Points & Analysis
In a shocking Black Swan event, the industry suffered the forced closing of all dining rooms in late March 2020. While this shock was less troublesome to concepts already heavily oriented towards drive-thru and off-premise, the devastation for sit-down oriented chains has been previously unimaginable.
4Q19 Investor Calls: Key Points & Analysis
The successful brands continue to add value in some form or another sufficient to drive higher tickets. It could be from menu improvements or innovation or digital order platform upgrades that add convenience to go with a higher check. It seems that those consumers with means can be cajoled into spending more if they perceive a value-added proposition in some form that resonates.
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