food CPI - NoBullEconomics

RR Dashboard: Sales Look Good, but Looks Can Be Deceiving

• FSR 1Q:22 comp performance for $1B+ chains outperformed the annual average for the 3-year stack comp as the sit-down concepts continue their recovery.
• Conversely, QSR comps are slowing, mirroring recent industry commentary about how the higher income demo (FSR) has been more resilient to current economic conditions relative to the lower income demo (QSR).
• Record highs for many commodities and wages have prompted most of the public restaurant companies to raise their cost outlooks for 2022.

RR Dashboard: Sales Not Keeping Up with Cost Inflation

• Initial 3-year stack comp performance for the $1B+ chains reveal that QSR is still outperforming FSR despite less impressive headline sales numbers for 1Q:22 alone. Going forward prospects are less optimistic as indicated by RR’s recent consumer survey which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month.
• The BLS Foodstuffs Index notched another all-time high in April and is up +109.3% y/y on a 2-year stacked basis.
• While operators are working hard to lower controllable costs, they cannot drive sales sufficiently to maintain their store-level margins in the current inflationary environment.

Insights: 4Q & Full Year 2021 Same Store Sales

• 4Q:21 same store sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +11.5% (+10.4% 2-yr. stack) and increased +16.7% for full year 2021 (+11.0% 2-yr. stack).
• $1B+ Chain market share of the total foodservice industry (food away from home & grocery) increased +0.06% to 17.61% (-0.85% below its 2016 peak).

2Q:20 Same Store Sales

RR’s 2Q:20 Same Store Sales Report provides annual, quarterly & interim sales results for the $1B+ restaurant chains as well as key economic data including retail sales, CPI, gas prices, GDP growth and unemployment rate.

Menu & Promotions

RR’s Menu & Promotions analysis provides data for 56 chains (33 QSR and 23 FSR) including: (1) a 6-year history of total menu items (2015 – May 2020); (2) promotional mix by quarter; (3) new product intros; (4) average check; (5) daypart sales mix; (6) digital & off-premise sales mix; (7) menu category mix; and (8) monthly new product calendar.