A slowdown in the consumer economy began at the end of 2022 & flat consumer spending is expected for 2023. This reflects a demand shift from goods back into services, as covid dynamics reverse themselves all the way.
China Schools the US on Morality
Must read: China lectures about U.S. Hegemony & Its Perils. Maybe China would prefer if it had hegemony instead? Some classify this diatribe published in February 2023 as an informal declaration of war.
The United States of America is Worth Saving
Americans need to be reminded about our heritage as the single most productive nation as measured by GDP/person with a unique capability to bless the entire world if we can simply get back to business.
NY Fed’s Predictive GDP Forecast Index Has Been Steadily Declining to Current 1.42% Level
Economic activity is slowing dramatically according to the WEI index, trending towards a recession.
Foot Locker Would Rather Consumers Shop From Home
Given that omnichannel customers spend 4x more than single-channel shoppers, Foot Locker’s 3Q sales suffered from a return to in-person shopping. 4Q sales are also expected to suffer because of the company’s decision to stop selling Kayne West’s “Yeezy” product line.
The Fed’s Obsession with Labor Maybe Missing the Mark
3Q22 comments from many public restaurant companies indicate that labor costs are clearly moderating and that labor shortages are largely a thing of the past (except for pizza delivery drivers).
This Week in Summary 12/2/2022
Powell’s recent speech spoke of a moderation in rate hikes which was very well received by the market (as evidenced by our Bubble Monitor dashboard).
Are We in a K-Shaped Economic Recovery?
A K-shaped recovery refers to when different economic sectors recover at different rates after a recession.
The Great Sacking
What message is sent to the 16MM+ employees that got fired at the peak of covid fear in March 2020?
Eviction Rates Climbing
Eviction rates are starting to approach covid levels when many lower-income renters lost their jobs during the lockdowns.