economic data

Insights: 1Q Same Store Sales

• 1Q22 same store sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +6.1% (+14.7% 3-yr stack) on slowing momentum (relative to +11.5% during 4Q21) with 7 of 30 chains reporting negative sales (compared to just 1 in 4Q21).
• With food-away-from-home CPI up +6.7% during the quarter, it is easy to see that comp growth is primarily attributable to menu price increases as opposed to traffic.

read more

Insights: 4Q & Full Year 2021 Same Store Sales

• 4Q:21 same store sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +11.5% (+10.4% 2-yr. stack) and increased +16.7% for full year 2021 (+11.0% 2-yr. stack).
• $1B+ Chain market share of the total foodservice industry (food away from home & grocery) increased +0.06% to 17.61% (-0.85% below its 2016 peak).

read more

RR Dashboard: Sales Catching-Up with the Consumer

• April RR Intent to Eat Out Index plunged -13.7% y/y due to difficult comparisons with April 2021 when consumers benefitted from $1,400/person government stimulus payments.
• The Food at Home (grocery stores) CPI expanded at its fastest rate in 40 years (+8.6% y/y during 2/22) – surpassing both the QSR and FSR CPI for the first time since 7/20.
• The price for regular gas increased +$0.70/gallon (+20%) to $4.22 compared to last month (+50% y/y) and represents the highest price ever.

read more

RR Dashboard: 2021 Restaurant Sales Set a Record

• 2021 restaurant system sales were record highs for both the $1B+ chains and, shockingly, for the independents and smaller chains according to government data.
• Stocks were particularly hard hit in January as concerns over inflation and rising interest rates were most worrisome for consumers & restaurants.
• While franchisee EBITDA multiples for the $1B+ Chains declined -1.7% according to RR’s preliminary 2H:21 valuation survey, they are expected to rise to 2019 levels during 1H22.

read more

RR Dashboard: Oct 2021

• 3Q:21 Sales Strength Tempered by Labor Shortage.
• Restaurant stocks sharply underperformed in October as deteriorating labor issues and near record commodity costs are squeezing margins.
• 95% of restaurants have experienced significant supply delays or shortages of key food items in recent months, according to a survey by the National Restaurant Association.

read more

RR Dashboard: Sep 2021

• QSR Finally Ramps-up Value Amid Record Core Price Hikes
• Consumer Weakness + Inflation = Higher Value Mix
• Labor Issues and Difficult Comparisons Weigh on QSR
• Cap Rates Reach All-Time Low

read more

1Q:21 Same Store Sales

• 1Q21 comps were very strong with the $1B+ Chains reporting +10.8% growth on a weighted average basis (+8.5% on a 2-year stacked basis).
• What is notable is how well most of the industry performed since the 1Q20 lockdowns, with 3 QSR segments up double-digits on a 2-year stacked basis during 1Q21.
• While the sit-down chains are getting back to normal, they still have a good bit of lost ground to recover.

read more

Dashboard: Apr 2021

Preliminary 1Q:21 average comp growth of +9.7% for the $1B+ Chains (+7.5% 2-year stacked) is a testament to the industry’s tremendous resilience in the face of impossible circumstances. While easing restrictions and strong economy should help keep the sales momentum going, ramping commodity inflation and labor challenges represent significant headwinds.

read more

Dashboard: Mar 2021

• Strong April comp prospects reflect that RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index increased +17.4% y/y in March and an overlap over last year’s lockdown period will provide a favorable y/y comparison, especially for FSR.
• A +40% jump in the March BLS Foodstuffs index and sharply higher lumber prices could impact both COGS & development costs.

read more

4Q20 Same Store Sales

● 4Q:20 $1B+ Chains same store sales were down -1.1% which is roughly in line with 3Q:20 results
● Preliminary full year 2020 comps for the $1B+ Chains declined -4.9%
● The $1B+ Chains increased market share relative to the total restaurant industry.

read more
Become a Member
NoBull Posts Thumbnail
Restaurant Research

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Research Services Banner

A Restaurant Research LLC Company