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NoBull’s Actionable Intelligence Newsletter provides succinct, value-added research covering key corporate & economic insights germane to consumer spending which drives 68% of GDP. Our Restaurant Research clients have been relying on us to provide them with analyses on $1B+ restaurant chains since 2000, now trust us to cover the entire consumer landscape for you.

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Weekly PDF report of analyses & commentaries
Intelligence from 85 leading retail companies
Timely analyses of key consumer economic data
Financial & economic analytical frameworks & proposed improvements

Abbreviated Concept Reviews & Industry Data Reports

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Who Says 2% Should be the CPI Inflation Target?

The inflation surge hit its zenith in June of 2022, peaking at +8.9% y/y. Fast forward nearly two years and inflation has declined to +3.48% y/y during the latest March 2024 report. While this represents progress, the problem is that recent trends have been deteriorating, prompting investor concerns that the Fed is likely to postpone any interest rate cuts. Notably, it turns out that the stock market doesn’t need rate cuts to power ahead…  

Key Conclusion from Penn Wharton Research: U.S. Growth Requires Faster Immigration

According to Penn Wharton’s U.S. Demographic Projections, U.S. population growth is projected to decline as the population becomes much older over time. Preventing these outcomes will require faster immigration by several multiples of its current rate.

Understanding Generational Differences in the Workforce

A very compelling Continuing Ed class we came across provided great insight into how to best deal with generational differences in the workforce. A great quote from the presentation: “Many of the interviewers did not understand my windy path through employment, which is, of course, a characteristic of my generation. They didn’t understand I wasn’t looking for one job for the rest of my life and that I wasn’t looking for money and status.”

Setting Some Simple Macroeconomic Objectives

After the full eclipse passed across the U.S., our thinking suddenly cleared, and we thought to list some macroeconomic objectives that would be good for Uncle Sam to pursue.

Microeconomics 101

Sometimes it is important to review what we all learned in our intro economic classes lest we get confused by the PhDs at the Fed. Here we will review the cause of high prices & their simple cure.

Traffic Declines Part 2

In our last analysis, we mentioned that we have yet to hear a logical explanation for the troubling trend of the persistent post-covid traffic declines which should be a major concern for every retail stakeholder. In our opinion, a look at the labor participation rate provides a clue worth exploring.

Traffic Declines – Part 1

How can restaurant/retail traffic decline every year unless something is shrinking? We understand how traffic declined during the notorious covid lockdowns, but it seems that these declines have continued for at least the next 4 years with no definitive end in sight. Are the same number of consumers shopping less frequently? Are there fewer consumers? We have yet to hear a logical explanation for this troubling trend which should be a major concern for every retail stakeholder…

NoBull 4Q23 All-Inclusive Report Announcements

NoBull’s analysis & benchmarking of the leading 80+ retail companies are presented in the following 4Q23 reports: (1) Corporate Analysis Summaries; (2) Same Store Sales Benchmarking; (3) Financial Performance Benchmarking; (4) Retail Stock Performance; and (5) Economic Dashboard. Notably, quarterly financial results for the retail sector were generally healthy despite a difficult macro environment which has been particularly punishing on the lower income demo.

The Kraft Heinz Company 4Q23: Net Sales -7%, Organic Sales -0.7%, Adjusted EBITDA -5.3%

Kraft reported that 4Q23 was more challenging than originally anticipated as higher interest rates continue to weigh on the consumer at the same time SNAP benefits significantly declined from 4Q22 peak levels. Notably, the resumption of student loan repayments in October 2023 is not expected to have a meaningful impact on future sales and management expects to drive top-line growth, return to positive volumes, and expand gross & operating margins during 2024.

State of the Consumer – Part 2

In our previous State of the Consumer Part 1 analysis, we suggested that consumers may have become more conservative in their secular spending patterns post-covid. In this analysis we provide another view of the consumer, illustrating another spending headwind & now we are questioning whether lower interest payments will translate into spending increases as commonly expected…

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