No Bull Economics

State of Consumer Part 1

State of Consumer Part 1

The following chart provides a good representation of American consumerism by comparing the historical growth of personal consumption expenditures to the growth of personal income. After a steady trend from 1947, something very unusual happened post-covid… 

read more
The Coca-Cola Co. 4Q23: Organic Rev +12%, Global Unit Case +2%, Price/Mix +9%

The Coca-Cola Co. 4Q23: Organic Rev +12%, Global Unit Case +2%, Price/Mix +9%

Coke reported that North American consumer spending in aggregate is holding up well although its unit case volume declined -1% as growth in juice, value-added dairy, plant-based beverages & legacy Coca-Cola was more than offset by a decline in water, sports, coffee, and tea. While inflationary pressures are moderating or stabilizing across most of Coke’s markets, the cumulative impact of inflation is pressuring certain consumer segments who are seeking value. Resultantly, Coke increased its affordability offerings throughout 2023 sufficient to win volume & value share.

read more
US Foods Holding Corp 4Q23: Net Sales +4.9%, Case Volume +5.6%, Adj EBITDA +10.9%

US Foods Holding Corp 4Q23: Net Sales +4.9%, Case Volume +5.6%, Adj EBITDA +10.9%

US Foods Holding’s full year 2024 guidance: net sales +5% to +8%; case volume growth +4% to +6%; and slight inflation of +0.5% to +1.5%. Management expects independent restaurant case growth to continue exceeding overall case growth & management believes that independent restaurant operators are strong, enjoying a nice recovery as they add new restaurants to the original base that came back online post-covid.

read more
Walmart 4QFY24: U.S. Comps +4% & U.S. Adjusted Operating Income +13%

Walmart 4QFY24: U.S. Comps +4% & U.S. Adjusted Operating Income +13%

Walmart’s management was encouraged by the strength of its unit & transaction growth during the quarter. The retailer gained a share in almost every category, with a substantial contribution from households earning $100k+. In its general merchandise category, two-thirds of its share gains were driven by new high-income customers & digital sales (the company passed $100B in global eCommerce sales for the first time during the year). In any case, Walmart’s value & convenience resonates with consumers of all income levels, driving traffic & share.

read more
What Happened in January?

What Happened in January?

How many times did we hear corporate management teams blame bad weather for their weak performance during January? The weather was fine here in the Southeast, so surely it was terrible in the rest of the country? We looked at the nation’s weather averages during January & things didn’t look too bad to us. There must have been something else going on here…  

read more
Shopping for your Fix

Shopping for your Fix

Krispy Kreme recently reported that +20% sugar inflation during 4Q23 reflected that the market is currently at a 10-year high. While this is not impeding the company’s growth, the poor consumer cannot otherwise afford their sugar fix. In the meantime, declining coffee prices are currently looking like a more cost-effective & healthier jolt – explaining the strong sales results we see for energy drinks, Starbucks & Dutch Bros. In any case, with cigarettes almost extinct and expensive sugar increasingly replaced with artificial sweeteners, exhausted & stressed consumers have nowhere else to turn but their espresso shots…     

read more
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp 4Q23: Sales +6.3%, Adjusted EBITDA +18%

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp 4Q23: Sales +6.3%, Adjusted EBITDA +18%

While food inflation has been moderating, consumers still face higher food prices & other financial burdens according to Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Further, consumer pressure is aggravated by high interest rates & consumer credit. While this value-oriented chain is well positioned in today’s economy, it reports a lower basket indicative of smaller, more frequent trips & moderating inflation (retail prices).

read more
Lower Income Demo Gains Ground According to US Treasury

Lower Income Demo Gains Ground According to US Treasury

A strong labor market has meant more bargaining power for workers, new & better jobs for workers to move into, and strong wages for more Americans according to “The Purchasing Power of American Households” blog post from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. While this conclusion is backed with economic data, there needs to be more exploration about the impact of spiking interest rates & rents on the lower income demo.  

read more
GDP Primer

GDP Primer

Before we use GDP as a measure of economic growth, we should take a moment to discuss the merits of its components…

read more
What the U.S. Can Learn from Argentina? Everything!

What the U.S. Can Learn from Argentina? Everything!

Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei (a trained economist) was able to implement a plan to help his country avoid a certain destiny with hyperinflation & default by implementing a radical economic plan centered around: severe fiscal tightening; the removal of foreign exchange restrictions & the implementation of a “dollarization”; and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. After 1 month in office, Argentina was able to generate a $589MM government surplus!

read more
Become a Member
NoBull Posts Thumbnail
Restaurant Research

Nobull consumer research weekly

No Bull Economics

Get Corporate & Market Insights in your inbox

Digital Marketing Opportunities
Research Services Banner

A Restaurant Research LLC Company