NoBull Posts

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

This week we spotlight efforts by international agencies to lower the earth’s temperature by imposing onerous regulations on energy producers. We suggest it will be better to: begin a process of implementing continuous improvements designed to support both economic & climate progress; and use international organizations to share tech & best practices as opposed to providing them with regulatory powers best left to individual nation-states.   

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RR Posts

RR 2023 Wendy’s Report

RR 2023 Wendy’s Report

While Wendy’s has done well to magnify its significant menu prowess sufficient to generate a respectable +18% cumulative U.S. comp growth from 2019 – 2022, the chain must continue to work to translate its QSR+ positioning into increased frequency from a higher income demo sufficient to drive a higher check and store level profits.

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RR 2023 IHOP Report

RR 2023 IHOP Report

IHOP is well positioned as the largest player in the $1B+ family chain segment with 30% market share and the largest marketing budget in the segment. The chain is well known for: an unexpected twist on “all things breakfast, any time of the day”; world famous pancakes; flavored syrups; and the never empty coffee pot

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RR 2023 McDonald’s Report

RR 2023 McDonald’s Report

While McDonald’s is well positioned for the long-term with solid execution around sound fundamentals, the current macro environment may prompt its core value-oriented customers to demand more deals and concessions than the system is prepared for.

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Dashboard Capital Markets May 2023

Dashboard Capital Markets May 2023

It looks like we may get the promised “soft landing” for the restaurant industry as employed consumers continue to have some money to spend while restaurant operators are poised to enjoy some well-deserved margin relief.

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Jack in the Box 2023

Jack in the Box 2023

While Jack has done a great job of reviving an iconic West Coast brand in a crowded field, it remains to be seen how the chain’s value equation will fare over the medium-term given a turbulent macro environment amplified through a problematic California lens.

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Chili’s 2023

Chili’s 2023

While Chili’s has been able to distinguish itself in a crowded FSR space with an attractive Tex-Mex menu, fun experience, leading value and digital strength, the chain’s immediate challenge is to survive the onslaught of economic pressures on its value oriented customer base.

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Unit Level Dashboard April 2023

Unit Level Dashboard April 2023

As lower inflation (relative to grocery stores) has provided an important tailwind for restaurant industry sales since 2022 (as it provides consumers with a greater reason to eat-out relative to home cooking), it is important to monitor this gap going forward.

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Panera Bread

Panera Bread

While Panera is well positioned for the long-term with a healthy halo and digital strength, near-term results may be tempered by the need for more value in a difficult economy and the need for a higher level of labor efficiency to support store-level profitability.

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15 Second Posts

It is Imperative that Climate Change Regs Incorporate Economic Reality

This week we spotlight efforts by international agencies to lower the earth’s temperature by imposing onerous regulations on energy producers. We suggest it will be better to: begin a process of implementing continuous improvements designed to support both economic & climate progress; and use international organizations to share tech & best practices as opposed to providing them with regulatory powers best left to individual nation-states.   

Part 3 – It’s Nice for the US to Save the Climate, But What About the Rest of the World?

In our last 2 posts, we outlined the probability that the UN’s push to lower the world’s temperature by -2 degrees Celsius could drive significant U.S. energy price hikes & shortages. How is this going to help as Asia ramps up the use of coal? Can humans lower the earth’s temperature anyhow?

Part 2: Who is Left to Make Investments in Fossil Fuels & Clean Energy?

There is not a lot of incentive for profit-seeking companies to invest in demonized fossil fuels or in clean energy projects lacking ROI. This points to substantially higher energy prices and supply shortages that will have a profound economic impact.

Part 1: Ramping Energy Demand Clashes with UN’s Environmental Goals

From 2021 to 2050, ExxonMobil forecasts that 85% of the population growth will be driven by developing countries, which in turn, will drive a +15% increase in energy demand.

What if the Federal Government Was Turned into a 501c3 Non-Profit?

Given all the focus on the debt ceiling, we propose a thought experiment in which all 100 federal agencies must compete for charitable donations. If taxpayers get to choose for themselves what to fund, what might we learn? 

Like Sinatra Croons: “So you see it’s all up to you, you can be better than you are.”

The top-paid hourly workers are currently enjoying the fastest wage growth, indicative of the current challenge to recruit & retain a skilled labor force.

Switching Jobs Paid Big Time in April

While declining labor turnover was a common theme during the 1Q23 investor calls, wage data shows that there is still good reason for employees to job-hop.

-1.59% Spread Between the 10-Year & 3-Month T-Bill

The NY Fed’s yield curve model forecasts a 68% recession probability. Since 1960, a yield curve inversion (as measured by the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates) has preceded every recession on record.

ChatGPT: Shall We Play a Game?

AI is striking fear in the hearts of managers & employees. We decided to test things out…

April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Provides Valuable Insight

Very recent SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices) data shows a sharp tightening in the business loan market, with important implications for future economic growth.